Years ago, I suggested that there was no current or impending oil shortage. Growing consumption, static U.S. production, and other reasons offered then and now did not imply that prices would rise. That conclusion only made sense if the pressure on reserves was increasing, a situation that would be signaled by rising costs of maintaining and expanding output. There was and is no sign of this.
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M. A. Adelman (1986) studied this question.
Synapse has enriched 2 closely related papers on similar clinical questions. Consider them for comparative context: