Behavioral Prediction and the Problem of Incapacitation*

Traditional views of incapacitation as a crime control strategy rely fundamentally on behavioral prediction. Most attempts at predicting offenders' behaviors have relied on simple dichotomous dependent variables. Recent attention to components of the “criminal career,” such as the rate of offending and the nature and potential patterning of offending behavior, could provide significant advantage to the prediction problem while informing debates about incapacitation strategies. We examine this possibility in the context of a study of some 6,000 offenders followed for more than 25 years. Little predictive advantage is realized by attention to more sophisticated behavioral outcome criteria. In agreement with other studies, we observe little support for hypotheses concerning the pattern of careers with respect to offense behaviors. The utility of incapacitation as a crime control strategy seems to be constrained by the limits imposed by predictive validity and perhaps by the nature of the criminal career.