International Market Leakage from China’s Forestry Policies

Carbon leakage can be a problem when seeking to reduce carbon emissions through forest policy. International market leakage is mainly caused by supply and demand imbalances in the timber market. This paper selects China, which is implementing forestry policy changes, as the research object. We begin by offering a brief analysis of China’s forestry policy changes, such as the logging quota and Six Key Forestry Programs to determine whether those policies affect timber supply. Second, through the use of three shock variables, carbon leakage is simulated under different scenarios by the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model. The results reveal that the magnitude of leakage caused by implementing China’s forestry policies is between 79.7% and 88.8% with carbon leakage mainly displaced to Russia, Southeast Asia, and the EU. Two effective scenarios for reducing market leakage are presented: forest tenure reform and fast growing forest projects to improve domestic timber production, and raising tariffs on timber imports to reduce imports.