Earthquake Triggering in the Seismotectonic Provinces of the Iranian Plateau Based on the Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) Model

Understanding the potential for earthquake triggering following a significant seismic event is crucial for estimating seismic hazards. This phenomenon arises due to coseismic static stress perturbations during the rupture process, which is closely linked to regional seismic activity. This study utilized the Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model to analyze the Iranian Plateau seismotectonic provinces’ seismic catalog. The model parameters were estimated across different time intervals, focusing on variations in completeness magnitude(MC). It examined the independent and dependent seismic event rates and assessed the clustering potential of triggered earthquakes in these regions. The results indicate high aftershock productivity in the Zagros province, while the Kopeh Dagh province exhibited the lowestPvalues, suggesting a slow decay rate of aftershocks. Conversely, the Makran region showed the highestq values, indicating low spatial excitaton power. Additionally, ETAS parameters indicate a significant potential for clustering events in the Central-East Iran seismotectonic province, highlighting the risk of multiple earthquakes and strong aftershocks. The findings demonstrate a notable potential for triggered earthquakes in the Zagros region, particularly in southeastern areas, the northern part of the Hormuz Strait, the Alborz-Azerbaijan province, and parts of northwestern Kopeh Dagh. These results provide a preliminary set of ETAS parameters in Iran’s seismotectonic provinces that can be a reference for predicting and understanding triggered events.