Uncertainty and Risk Analysis of Pakistan’s Housing Market: Fan Chart Approach

Economic forecasting is necessary to revise and check the effectiveness of the existing policies.This serves as a pioneer study to forecast house prices (HP), foreign direct investment (FDI), and worker's remittances (WR) using the time series data ranging from 1973 to 2018 on the economy of Pakistan.The analysis is performed on a yearly, quarterly, and monthly basis to present the detailed synthesis.Fan chart methodology is used to forecast growth rates of house price, foreign direct investment, and worker's remittances for ten years 2019-2028.The results of the analysis support the proposition that there is uncertainty associated with house prices.To get beneficial results, the economic managers should carefully design a housing policy so that upside and downside risks are minimized.