This article uses a Multiple Indicators Multiple Causes (MIMIC) model to analyse the determinants of smuggling. The analysis reveals that higher corruption and a lower rule of law encourage smuggling. Tariffs and trade restrictions are important push factors, while a higher Black Market Premium (BMP) discourages smugglers. Based on the MIMIC estimates, we calculate an index of smuggling which provides a ranking for 54 countries. We find that smuggling is rampant in Cameroon, Pakistan and Kenya while it is least prevalent in Switzerland, Finland and Sweden.
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Buehn et al. (2011) studied this question.
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