Increased transportation of oil by rail has increased the risk of derailments that result in spills. Most notably, the June 2013 derailment in Lac Megantic resulted in substantial damages. Recent policy actions in response to this increased risk highlight the need for better tools to analyze the potential benefits of from these policy actions. In this paper, we model factors influencing both the annual number and severity of spills resulting from derailments of railroad tank cars. Doing so allows us to better forecast both the annual count and the severity of spills for use in analysis of proposed policy changes.
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Homan et al. (2016) studied this question.