Remotely sensed surface water variations during drought and deluge conditions in a Northern Great Plains terminal lake basin

Northern Great Plains (NGP) region, North Dakota, USA Understanding climate change impacts on surface water dynamics of permanent and seasonal water areas under drought to deluge conditions in the Devils Lake Basin (DLB) utilizing a high-resolution global surface water dataset (GSWD). Four phases of dry and wet conditions were experienced in the DLB during the 1990–2018 study period: wetting (1990–1999), stable (2000–2003), recent wetting (2004–2013) and recent drying (2014–2018). A substantial transition from bare land to permanent and seasonal water area is observed during the wetting period (1990–99) while during the stable period (2000–2003), changes are barely observed despite NGP-wide drought. In the recent wetting period (2004–2013), a noticeable gain of permanent water from seasonal and bare land is observed. During the recent drying period (2014–2018), a significant loss of seasonal water area to bare land occurred. The difference between the spring and summer surface water areas is high during the recent wetting period (e.g., 2009, 2011, 2013), but much lower as the DLB approaches a drought condition. The inter-annual and intra-annual water dynamics of permanent and seasonal water areas show different rates of change and varying hydrological lags to changing hydroclimatic drivers and these changes are sensitive to basin antecedent conditions.