Social and Demographic Factors in American Political Party Affiliations, 1952-72

This analysis of changes in the party affiliations of American adults between 1952 and 1972 (1) assesses the stability of the relationship between party and a set of causal variables and (2) examines the extent to which the observed changes are attributable to changes in the electorate's demographic composition. We found that indicators of stratification position, race, region, religion, and political socialization have exerted a nearly constant causal influence on party throughout the twenty-year period. A model which assumed constant effects (equal regression slopes) across the six elections explained only 21%o less of the variance in party than a model which allowed the slopes to vary across elections. Of the variables in the causal model, socialization-as indicated by father's party preference-has the largest effect on party affiliation. The addition to our model of the demographic variables, age and cohort, revealed that both factors influence individuals' party affiliations. Though age and cohort explain only a small portion of the variance in party, examination of the net differences in mean party affiliation between age groups and between cohorts showed that aging does produce a net shift away from the Democratic party and that the Depression has had lasting effects on the preferences of cohort members formulating their preferences at that time.