The Conservative Party Leadership Transition from Theresa May to Boris Johnson: Party Popularity and Leadership Satisfaction

This paper considers the Conservative Party leadership transition from Theresa May to Boris Johnson using the work of Leonard P. Stark (1996) on the impact of changing the party leader. We adapt the Stark framework for determining impact and using public opinion data on party popularity and leadership satisfaction. We place the transition from May to Johnson in a historical context by comparing it to the impact of leadership transitions within the Conservative Party since the inception of leadership democracy in 1965.