Estimation of survival in marked populations with possibly dependent sighting probabilities

A simply parameterized class of models for the estimation of survival probability in a marked population is introduced which allows tests of dependence between sighting probabilities and constancy of survival or sighting probabilities. Estimation and hypothesis testing based on the likelihood function are discussed. By simulation, the asymptotic properties of the test for dependence are shown to hold for quite modest sample sizes. The degree of bias in estimation of survival probabilities when dependence between sightings is not taken into account is shown to increase as the probability of a nonsighting following a nonsighting increases. A comprehensive analysis of the data from a mark-recapture experiment dealing with survival of abalone is given.