Dimensioning Reserve Margins of Electrical Energy in Sweden

Assessing the impact of electricity shortages is a key problem in determining the optimal reliability of a nation's electrical system. The size of an electrical system's reserve margin will depend to a great extent on how the shortage value is determined. Telson (1975) used macroeconomic data to estimate the upper and lower bounds of the cost for unsupplied electricity. He found the present 1-day-in-10-years loss-of-load probability criterion to be uneconomically excessive and proposed that the criterion be reduced at least to the 5-days-in-10-years level.