Predicting Persistence of Urban Commuter Campus Students Utilizing Student Background Characteristics From Enrollment Data

Successful retention strategies require early identification of at‐risk students. Useful data contained in student enrollment records are often underutilized as a tool in dropout intervention. This article summarizes the results of a longitudinal retention study where variables in the student database were used to predict dropout. The purpose of the study, which was conducted at a four‐year, urban commuter institution, was to determine if differences in student background characteristics could distinguish persistence rate differences between associate and baccalaureate degree students. The results of this research showed that students enrolled in two‐year degrees had better persistence rates than bachelor's degree students. Two particular variables, first semester hours and first semester grade point average, were significant in their ability to predict dropout. A review of the literature indicated that student background characteristics may be the most reliable variables in studying dropout at urban commuter institutions where the student population is primarily nontraditional. Several recommendations that relate specifically to the research findings are put forward for the community college retention practitioner.