The choice of network structure in individual-based models significantly impacts estimates of poliovirus outbreak dynamics, highlighting the importance of network assumptions in policy analyses.
Network assumptions in poliovirus models warrant validation before policy use; leaves open optimal structures for reliable outbreak forecasts.
We developed an individual-based (IB) model to explore the stochastic attributes of state transitions, the heterogeneity of the individual interactions, and the impact of different network structure choices on the poliovirus transmission process in the context of understanding the dynamics of outbreaks. We used a previously published differential equation-based model to develop the IB model and inputs. To explore the impact of different types of networks, we implemented a total of 26 variations of six different network structures in the IB model. We found that the choice of network structure plays a critical role in the model estimates of cases and the dynamics of outbreaks. This study provides insights about the potential use of an IB model to support policy analyses related to managing the risks of polioviruses and shows the importance of assumptions about network structure.
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Rahmandad et al. (2010) studied this question.
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