A holistic methodological framework to support strategic procurement and supplier selection for sustainable supply chains of mineral resources within a changing global landscape

The procurement of raw materials has become increasingly complex and risky, driven by the expansion of emerging markets, technological advancements, and evolving geopolitical dynamics. The study introduces a holistic methodological framework designed to support decision-makers in assessing and comparing the multi-dimensional risks that influence the procurement of raw materials. The framework provides a structured, simulation-based approach that integrates economic, environmental, societal, political, and technical factors, enabling stakeholders to identify the most resilient sourcing strategies while optimizing procurement options. Methodologically, the research work leveraged on the Holistic Risk Analysis and Modelling (HoRAM) method, whose construct is in line with ISO 31000 for risk management. It offers a flexible approach capable of integrating both qualitative and quantitative factors, enabling a detailed and systemic understanding of supply chain risks, meant as uncertainties on objectives. The aim of the study is to present a generalised previsional model capable of supporting the analysis of risks associated with the supply chain of raw materials, using the supply chain of Cadmium from the USA, Sweden, Peru, and Australia to Germany as a case. According to the calculations the USA shows a superior performance and comparable low expected risk costs. Sweden and Peru, follow with similar, but medium-risk pattern, while Australia shows the highest risk performance. The USA has also the highest resilience level regarding the analysed external factors, whereas Peru shows the lowest robustness.