Why the study?
Forecasting age-specific overdose patterns at the local level is a major challenge for effectively designing and delivering targeted prevention and preparedness interventions.
A novel forecasting method assimilating CDC WONDER data with an age-structured model provides local, age-specific estimates of drug overdose mortality to help guide targeted prevention and preparedness interventions.
Local overdose forecasting challenges persist; leaves open targeted prevention models.
The drug overdose crisis in the United States continues to intensify. Fatalities have increased five-fold since 1999 reaching a record high of 108,000 deaths in 2021. The epidemic has unfolded through distinct waves of different drug types, uniquely impacting various age, gender, race and ethnic groups in specific geographical areas. One major challenge in designing effective interventions is the forecasting of age-specific overdose patterns at the local level so that prevention and preparedness can be effectively delivered. We develop a forecasting method that assimilates observational data obtained from the CDC WONDER database with an age-structured model of addiction and overdose mortality. We apply our method nationwide and to three select areas: Los Angeles County, Cook County and the five boroughs of New York City, providing forecasts of drug-overdose mortality and estimates of relevant epidemiological quantities, such as mortality and age-specific addiction rates.
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Böttcher et al. (2023) studied this question.
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