How do you assess the risks of rare but catastrophic events, like a volcanic eruption at the proposed Yucca Mountain nuclear waste repository? That question has plagued science policy-makers for years, and now many geoscientists are using a new way to mathematically combine the risk and uncertainty estimates from a panel of experts. In the case of Yucca Mountain, this “expert elicitation” method has just yielded some surprising results.
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Richard A. Kerr (1996) studied this question.
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