Betting on (un)certain futures: sociotechnical imaginaries of AI and varieties of techno-developmentalism in Asia

The rise of generative artificial intelligence (AI) has prompted governments worldwide to formulate national strategies. However, existing research on AI innovation discourse remains centered on dominant economic and technological powers, or Global South critiques of data colonialism and infrastructural imperialism. This paper examines how three geographically non-dominant developmental Asian societies, namely Singapore, Taiwan and Hong Kong, construct AI-driven futures through the lens of sociotechnical imaginaries. Using interpretive discourse analysis of national policy documents, the study identifies a shared techno-developmental imaginary that frames AI as an inevitable yet necessary force for socio-economic survival, focused on enhancing ‘smartness’ through computational power while managing associated uncertainty. Despite this convergence, each society articulates variegated techno-developmental orientations embedded in specific historical, institutional and geopolitical contexts. Singapore advances cybernetic pragmatism aligned with authoritarian-technocratic governance; Taiwan promotes AI as a defensive modality for economic nationalism and democratic sovereignty; and Hong Kong pursues techno-entrepreneurial intermediation within Chinese state capitalism. These imaginaries shape how governing authorities coordinate institutional actors, manage global positioning and geopolitical risks, and mobilize resources across uneven AI production networks. The analysis contributes to STS, communication studies and critical AI studies by examining how global AI governance is locally imagined and legitimized, revealing the layered, contingent, and contested nature of techno-futures.