Model to estimate the impact of future CO2 emissions due to the increase in the electric vehicle fleet - the case of the Brazilian capital

This article proposes a model that estimates the growth of the individual transport vehicle fleet and the impact of electric vehicles on CO2 emissions by the year 2050.For this purpose, a case study was carried out in the federal capital of Brazil, Braslia, to characterise real driving cycles, with measurements of speeds, fuel consumption and CO2 emissions, and thus validate the proposed model.Therefore, the model was applied in scenario simulations, obtaining an 84% reduction in CO2 emissions with the total change in the fleet from combustion vehicles to electric vehicles by the year 2050.In another perspective, by changing the composition of the current vehicle fleet to 50% ethanol-powered hybrid vehicles and 50% electric vehicles will reduce CO2 emissions by 92%.The simulated scenarios indicated the potential for decarbonising CO2 emissions by replacing the fleet of vehicles with ignition engines for hybrid and electric ones.