Regional synchronization patterns between climate indices and Colombian hydroclimatic variables

This study provides the first comprehensive multi-index nonlinear teleconnection analysis between 16 Ocean–Atmosphere climate indices and eight hydroclimatic variables across Colombia, using variable-specific regionalization and wavelet coherence. Analyzing 9,268 quality-controlled time series (1970–2014), we advance beyond ENSO-centric approaches by quantifying region-specific synchronization patterns and lags with Pacific, Atlantic and extratropical modes across 59 statistically coherent regions that diverge substantially from administrative watershed boundaries. Niño indices exhibit 1–3 month lags (8–9/9 regions); critically, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation influences precipitation (8/9 regions) and streamflow (all regions) with 1–2.5 month lags, previously undocumented for Colombia. These operationally actionable lag structures (up to 15 months for SOI/ONI/MEI) provide multi-month predictive lead times for integrated water–energy–food nexus planning, including reservoir operations, irrigation scheduling and hydropower management. The methodology establishes a replicable framework for complex-terrain teleconnection analysis in data-sparse regions, with direct implications for climate-informed resource management in topographically diverse tropical countries.