Decomposition of the Beef and Pork Cycles

C ONSIDERABLE interest has been expressed recently in improving C_y agricultural market forecasts for both public and private purposes.2 To facilitate the development of alternative market forecasting procedures, two production cycles-beef and pork-were studied in terms of the several interacting components of these cycles. Commercial beef and pork production in each cycle was related, first, to the level of livestock inventories on farms and, finally, to the level of market prices at the time of decision making in livestock production. In this study the beef and pork output cycles were decomposed into the livestock classes and the time sequence of interrelated events that meaningfully characterize their operation during the 12-year period, 1949-1960. Though a rather short period of years was included in the estimation of the functional relationships, the data were adequate for showing some relevant interrelations among the price and quantity variables that depict the operation of the beef-pork economy in the United States.