Epidemiological Characteristics, Incidence Trends and Prediction of Lung Cancer in Kailu County from 2009 to 2022 Based on APC and ARIMA Models

Objective: To understand the epidemiological characteristics of lung cancer in Kailu County from 2009 to 2022, to analyze the long-term trend of lung cancer incidence by age-period-cohort (APC) model, and to predict the incidence from 2023 to 2025 by using the autoregressive integral moving average model (ARIMA) model. Methods: Based on the incidence and death data of lung cancer and household registration in Kailu County from 2009 to 2022, the crude morbidity (death) rate, the standardized incidence (death) rate of China's population, and the standardized incidence (death) rate of the world population were calculated by gender and age. The Joinpoint regression model was used to calculate the APC of China's population standardization rate. The APC model was constructed to study the age distribution characteristics, incidence trend and birth cohort effect of lung cancer. The ARIMA model was used to predict the trend of lung cancer incidence from 2023 to 2025. Results: The crude incidence and crude mortality rate of lung cancer in Kailu County from 2009 to 2022 were 44.75/100,000 and 34.86/100,000, respectively. The standardized incidence (death) rate of China's population is 41.96/100,000 (32.85/100,000), and the standardized incidence (death) rate of the world population is 36.17/100,000 (33.42/100,000). The incidence and mortality rates were significantly higher in males than in females ( P <0.05). The standardized incidence of lung cancer in China showed an upward trend from 2009 to 2014 (APC=24.86%, P <0.05), decreased year by year from 2014 to 2022 (APC=-8.07%, P <0.05), and the standardized mortality rate of the Chinese population increased from 2009 to 2014 (APC=36.26%, P <0.05), and showed a downward trend from 2014 to 2022 (APC=-9.33%, P <0.05); The results of the APC model showed that the risk of lung cancer peaked at the age of 50-54 in men and reached the peak at the age of 60-64 in women. The prediction results of the ARIMA(0,1,0) model show that the incidence of lung cancer in the county will show a slow downward trend from 2023 to 2025. Conclusion: From 2009 to 2022, the epidemic characteristics of lung cancer in Kailu County showed a trend of first rising and then decreasing, and there were obvious age and gender differences in incidence and death, it was necessary to continue to carry out lung cancer surveillance and strengthen prevention and control publicity and intervention in high-risk groups to reduce the burden of lung cancer disease.