Bioclimatic analysis of cabbage seedpod weevil, Ceutorhyncus obstrictus (Marsham) (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) and canola, Brassica napus Linnaeus (Brassicaceae) responses to climate

The cabbage seedpod weevil (CSW), Ceutorhynchus obstrictus (Marsham) (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) is an important pest of brassicaceous crops, including canola ( Brassica napus Linnaeus). CSW consumes seeds of its host from inside the developing pods. It was introduced to North America from Europe and now occurs throughout the United States of America and Canada. Climate is one of the most important factors that determines species distribution and abundance. CLIMEX is a bioclimate model development application. Based on climate inputs, bioclimatic simulation models are tools that predict the potential geographic distribution and abundance of insects and plants. This study updated a previous bioclimatic model for CSW and presents a new model for canola. Validated models were used to conduct bioclimatic analysis of both species, the results of which provide a better understanding of how climate affects spatial distribution and abundance of CSW and the distribution and yield of canola. Application of incremental temperature and moisture scenarios were used to predict the spatial relationship of CSW risk and canola yield. We anticipate that the canola model will be applied to future bioclimatic studies of pests and beneficial insects of canola. Both the CSW and canola model can be used in climate change studies using datasets for predicted future climates.