Competing energy narratives in Tanzania: Towards the political economy of coal

Can coal thrive in the era of climate change, low-carbon energy, and the global coal crisis? After years of rapid growth, global coal use fell in 2015, and projections point to a massive decline in the future.1 A recent report also shows a sharp decline in the number of new coal-fired power plants being planned in the first half of 2016, falling 14 percent globally.2 Yet, despite the possible global coal crash, Tanzania is planning a number of coal-fired power plants (listed in Table 1) to boosts its energy security and quest for industrialization, which has been declared a top government priority by President John Magufuli. ... Whilst the country has a wealth of energy resources, both renewable (biomass, solar, hydro, wind, and geothermal) and non-renewable (coal, natural gas, and uranium), Tanzania's current energy mix is highly dependent on hydropower, which has proved less reliable given recent recurrent droughts. Amid efforts to increase both reliability and capacity, coal has emerged as an attractive part of the broader energy-mix strategy, alongside recently discovered natural gas.3 Given the abundance of coal, the government unveiled a power production strategy designed to increase the share of coal in electricity production from zero (the current level) to 34 percent (2,900 MW) by 2025 (see Table 2). This new emphasis on coal expansion has triggered a clash between energy security and sustainability narratives, driven by the struggle between state-sponsored interests in coal-fired power and the emerging and expanding interest in renewable energy and low-carbon development from civil society and the international donor community. ...