Petroleum Demands of Future Decades

The long lead time required to discover and develop new hydrocarbon reserves compels the oil industry and the explorationist to think in terms of future requirements. By 1990 the Free World will need approximately 98 million bbl of oil a day, and to provide a 10 or 15 to 1 reserve-production ratio, 250–450 billion bbl of oil must be added to known reserves. Discovery of this amount must be made in spite of such man-made hurdles as economic, political, and social restraints. Of the thousands of fields thus far discovered, 78 percent of the Free World’s proved reserves are in 161 giant fields. To find new fields, whether giant or pygmy, new laboratory and field tools are available or in prospect. They range from the electron microprobe to remote sensing from outer space. Their effective use, however, calls not only for expert handling but also for highly sophisticated interpretation that transcends the traditional boundaries of geology and geophysics. Basically, successful exploration for the future decades will depend on new and inspired concepts, conceived and applied with imagination that is rigidly disciplined to distinguish clearly between what we know to be true and what we think may be true.