The Reconstructed Individual Patient Data from Kaplan–Meier (IPDfromKM) Method for Non-Inferiority Analyses: A New Potential Application

The IPDfromKM method, or Shiny method, is an artificial intelligence tool that enables indirect comparisons between studies by reconstructing individual patient data (IPD) from Kaplan-Meier (KM) curves. The IPDfromKM method is generally used for superiority analyses, but a further application could be represented by non-inferiority analyses. However, there are no studies supporting this methodological hypothesis. The aim of this work was to validate the IPDfromKM method for non-inferiority analyses by "exploiting" the well-described non-inferiority of implantable devices occluding the left atrial appendage compared to oral anticoagulants in patients with atrial fibrillation. We performed a systematic review searching for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) in the PubMed database and found five studies. The R software (version 4.3.3) was used to perform a standard survival analysis comparing Watchman and Amlet devices with warfarin. The hazard ratio (HR), with 95% confidence interval (CI), was the main parameter of our analysis. The results confirmed the non-inferiority of Amlet and Watchman compared to warfarin (HR of Watchman vs. warfarin: 1.23, 95% CI 0.80 to 1.9; HR of Amlet vs. warfarin: 1.05, 95% CI 0.61 to 1.80). Therefore, we proposed a new application of the IPDfromKM method that could be potentially relevant in decision-making for the management of this common cardiac arrhythmia and a wide range of other pathological conditions.