Farmland protection and yield intensification are needed to avoid large rice imports and land conversion in Indonesia

Rice self-sufficiency has long been a central goal of countries in Southeast Asia. However, fast rates of cropland conversion raise concern about future self-sufficiency. Here, we assessed recent trends in rice area conversion and associated drivers in Indonesia, which is the most populous country and largest rice consumer in the region, and assessed self-sufficiency for future scenarios of land-use change and yield improvement. We used high-resolution satellite data from 11 major producing provinces to quantify patterns of rice area conversion between 2013 and 2023, coupled with estimates of yield potential to determine available room for crop production increase through yield intensification. We found that rice physical area has declined at a rate of 88,195 ha per year (1.09%). Cropland was converted mostly for residential and industrial uses and industrial crops. Continuation of historical trends, without yield improvement, will reduce current rice physical area from 7.3 M ha to 5.8 M ha in 2040, leading to a projected rice deficit of 19 million tons. Meeting domestic rice demand under this scenario will require larger rice imports and/or massive cropland expansion. On the other hand, yield intensification coupled with measures to reduce rice area conversion could allow Indonesia to meet demand on existing cropland and even generate a rice surplus. Although our study is based on a subset of sites, the direction and magnitude of changes in rice area highlight the need for strong policies and enforcement to reduce cropland conversion and research and development programs to foster yield intensification.