Do Recognized Intangible Assets Inform Bank Performance? Macro Digital Infrastructure as a Cross-Layer Condition in Indonesian Banking

This study examines whether recognized intangible assets carry information about bank performance in an emerging market, and whether their information value is conditioned by the maturity of macro digital infrastructure. Using a balanced panel of 28 Indonesian commercial banks over 2015–2024 (280 firm-year observations), we estimate two-way fixed-effects models with macro digital infrastructure, an economy-wide principal component index of internet penetration, mobile and broadband subscriptions, and electronic payment volume as a cross-layer moderator. Intangible investment intensity, proxied by the ratio of reported intangible assets to total assets, shows weak direct associations with performance; only the operating efficiency ratio displays a marginally significant short-run cost, consistent with transition-cost dynamics. The central result is conditional: the interaction between intangible intensity and macro digital maturity is strongly significant for operating efficiency (β = −2.587, p = 0.005), with the implied efficiency cost contracting by a model-implied 88 percent across the observed range of digital maturity (an estimate computed from the estimated coefficients over the observed sample variation, not a structural causal magnitude). Heterogeneity is pronounced across regulator-defined bank tiers (KBMI): the four largest banks realize positive profitability effects, whereas mid-tier banks bear transition costs. Results are robust to Driscoll–Kraay standard errors, system GMM, sub-sample splits, and outlier exclusion. The findings show that the information value of recognized intangibles in banking is state-contingent, extending the intangible-asset and digitalization literature to emerging-market banking.