The Costs Of Aids: A Review of the Estimates

Prologue: Societal costs associated with acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) are obviously on the rise as more individuals contract the deadly disease and others are found to be infected by the virus. The cases of AIDS reported thus far are only the beginning of the projected toll, because the damage the virus inflicts on the immune system generally is not apparent until years after initial infection. Beyond this grim reality, the epidemic is growing every day, partly because persons who may not know they are infected are spreading the virus. In this paper, economist Jane Sisk of the U.S. Congress Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) provides a comprehensive review of the cost estimates that have been made regarding AIDS and other related infections. Sisk, who holds a doctorate in economics from McGill University, is a veteran OTA analyst, having worked at the agency since 1976, with time out (1978-1981) to participate in the scholar's program of the Veterans Administration. Over the years, Sisk has participated in a variety of OTA-sponsored studies around health financing and prevention issues, including—most recently—an examination of payment for physicians' services under Medicare. Other works have included a study of the medical devices industry and cost-effectiveness studies of vaccines against influenza and pneumococcal pneumonia. As an agency, OTA will be devoting more resources to the AIDS phenomenon in the future because some of its congressional stewards, including Rep. Jerry Lewis (R-CA)—a member of the House Appropriations subcommittee, which approves OTA's budget every year—believe the agency should be centrally involved in the coming war against AIDS.