Private Investment in Forest Management and the Long‐Term Supply of Timber

Timber supply behavior of private forest owners is a major uncertainty in long‐term forest product market projections. A model of private supply is developed that explains both harvest and forest management investment decisions. Comparison of two fifty‐year projections, one assuming constant management intensity and a second using the harvest‐investment model, indicates that projected levels of investment would ( a ) have little impact on markets prior to the year 2000, ( b ) stabilize real wood product prices after 2000, ( c ) eliminate softwood lumber imports by 2030, and ( d ) expand the dominant role of southern forest regions in wood product markets.