Seeing and believing: the emergent nature of extreme weather perceptions

Using data from the Communities and Environment in Rural America (CERA) surveys, I employ a mixed-effect modeling technique to investigate the influence of individual- and county-level characteristics on public perceptions of unusual or extreme weather. In addition to the survey data, I also utilize county-level weather events’ data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA’s) Storm Events Database (SED) in order to test whether the incidence and impact of severe weather influences public perceptions of unusual or extreme weather. The results suggest that individuals’ perceptions of extreme weather events are influenced by their political values and social position, but objectively measured impacts of weather events also exert some direct influence and moderate the relationship between values, social positions, and perceptions. Additionally, I find random county-level variation in the perceptions’ net of all individual- and county-level independent predictors. This study adds to a growing body of literature on public perceptions of environmental issues by illuminating the socio-demographic and -contextual nature of individual-level perception formation through the use of integrated social and biophysical data.