A Scenario‐Based Framework for Multicriteria Decision Analysis in Water Resources Planning

This paper describes the evolution of a general group decision‐making or negotiation support procedure for water resources planning at a strategic level (such as regional development planning), based on principles of multicriteria decision analysis. A number of difficulties have been encountered in applying many of the standard multiple‐criteria decision‐making (MCDM) tools and techniques directly in this context. The paper introduces a broader framework in which these difficulties may be overcome, so that MCDM tools can be used effectively for evaluating strategic planning options. This framework is based on direct evaluation of sequences of “policy scenarios,” which are neither a full set of possible planning “alternatives,” nor fully specified down to the finest level of detail. The overall procedure and some experiences in applying it within the context of regional water resource planning in South Africa are discussed.