Spatial analysis of diarrhea and wasting among under-five children in Nigeria: a generalized multivariate conditional autoregressive modeling approach

Diarrhea and wasting are leading causes of childhood morbidity and mortality in sub-Saharan Africa, with Nigeria experiencing high rates among children under five. Addressing this requires evidence-based interventions informed by a comprehensive understanding of their drivers and spatial patterns. Using 2018 Nigerian Demographic and Health Survey data, we applied the generalized multivariate conditional autoregressive model with Bayesian inference based on Markov chain Monte Carlo to explore these patterns. The analysis revealed a significant north–south divide in diarrhea prevalence, with higher rates in northern states, particularly Sokoto, Katsina, Jigawa, Yobe, Gombe, Bauchi, Kano, Plateau, and Taraba, and lower rates in the south. Wasting showed notable prevalence in Sokoto, Borno, Benue, Abia and Imo but was less significant in Bayelsa and insignificant elsewhere. Amongst others, children from wealthier households were associated with reduced risks for both diarrhea and wasting, with the lowest risk observed in the richest households.