The effectiveness of coercive intelligence disclosure: The case of Israel and the German scientists in Egypt

Public intelligence disclosure has become an increasingly prevalent instrument of foreign policymaking, yet its effectiveness as a tool of coercion remains poorly understood. An analysis of Israel’s campaign against German scientists’ involvement in Egypt’s missile program in the early 1960s demonstrates the risks and unpredictability of this practice: campaigns may underachieve intended objectives, trigger effects that exceed or diverge from initial aims, or backfire by imposing political or diplomatic costs on the disclosing state. The central implication is that intelligence-based public campaigns require not only operational risk assessments, but also ex ante consideration of broader political and strategic consequences.