Environmental Effects of BEV Penetration Considering Traffic Status

The adoption of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) is widely expected to help improve air quality in Chinese cities, whereas this adoption may change traffic status related to vehicle energy consumption and emissions. This paper presents a traffic status-sensitive approach to evaluating the environmental effects and accounting for the potential impacts of BEVs on traffic flows. First, a multinomial logit (MNL) BEV route choice model is estimated, and the different route choice preferences between BEV and gasoline vehicle (GV) drivers are analyzed. Second, a stochastic assignment approach for mixed electric and gasoline vehicular flows is developed, incorporating BEV and gasoline vehicle (GV) route choice models. Finally, using actual vehicle trip data, the proposed approach is applied to calculate the traffic status and evaluate the environmental effects under various BEV penetrations in Beijing. The results indicate that the relative decreases in emissions are less than the BEV penetration rate, and increasing BEVs appears to change network traffic status and then increase the emission rates of GVs, especially during peak hours.