Model for Determining the Probability of Airline Bankruptcy

The present study is aimed at developing a preliminary model for assessing the financial condition and forecasting the probability of bankruptcy of the airline. The goal is using effective forecasting methods to develop a model for predicting the probability of bankruptcy of airlines in the conditions of non-stationary development of the Russian economy. In this paper the financial resources of mainly large Russian airlines and their patterns are considered, using economic and mathematical forecasting methods and general methods of scientific cognition in various aspects. The authors substantiate the existence of patterns among the financial indicators of Russian airlines of bankrupt and non-bankrupt, and also propose schemes for constructing an economic and mathematical model and identify median values of financial indicators. This model for preliminary detection of airline bankruptcies can be used taking into account a limited set of financial indicators due to the ease of implementation and the availability of most data in the public domain. The authors of the work investigated the methods of predicting bankruptcy of enterprises, with an emphasis on airlines, and made a comparative analysis of financial indicators according to the financial statements of Russian airlines.