Testing and clarifying a macro model of socioeconomic change and fertility

This study examines human reproduction and its causal links to the socioeconomic conditions of society within the framework of the demographic transition. A theoretical fertility model for one hundred countries (28 more developed countries [MDC's] and 72 less developed countries [LDC's]) is subjected to path analysis. Findings for the hundred countries were mainly a function of the LDC's. Stronger support was found in the LDC's for the indirect fertility‐inhibiting effect of economic development than for its fertility‐promoting effect. This indirect effect was exerted on fertility through education‐literacy and nutrition‐diet. Education‐literacy was by far the most important cause of fertility decline, although there were smaller positive direct effects of economic development and governmental attitudes toward family planning on fertility. When education‐literacy was controlled, economic development became a negative, but insignificant, influence on fertility, and the effect of governmental attitudes toward family planning exhibited no effect on fertility. These findings suggest strongly that the improvement of education and literacy may be an answer to fertility control. Changes in health service and infant mortality seem natural results of the betterment of education and literacy. This study reconciles the two distinct views as to whether fertility increases or remains stable and high while mortality declines during early demographic transition. Both offer valid explanations for the transition in the LDC's. Results for the LDC's are compared with those for the MDC's, and policy implications are discussed.