Plant Disease Prediction Using a Mesoscale Weat her Forecasting Technique

This paper presents an application of a new forecasting technique, called Model Output Enhancement (MOE), to mesoscale disease prediction. We report on the feasibility of using mesoscale weather forecasts to derive disease forecasts 24 hours into the future for areas as small as 1-km 2 (1-km resolution). We chose potato late blight, caused by Phytophthora infestans (Mont.) de Bary, to illustrate how the MOE technique could be applied to generate a mesoscale disease forecast