National Forces in the 1986 U. S. House Elections

Analysis of the ABC News/ Washington Post Congressional District Poll and related data demonstrates that voting in 1986 elections to the U.S. House of Representatives was strongly affected both by the strength of nonincumbent candidates (measured by campaign spending) and by voters' opinions on national issues. Moreover, strong candidacies and issue opinions were mutually reinforcing: stronger challengers benefitted more from favorable national issues, and the influence of national issues was greater in districts with well-financed challenges. Thus, even when national forces present few exploitable issues and inspire few strong challenges, issue voting occurs when local conditions are conducive to it.