Radicalisation as deviant social development: Evidence from the 2024 Communities That Care Youth Survey in Lower Saxony

This study examined how four proximal radicalisation processes, namely antisocial attitudes and behaviour, prejudice, identity problems and political/religious ideology predict political extremism among adolescents and young adults. Drawing on the social-developmental radicalisation model, we analysed data from a large sample of young people ( N = 5721) aged 13 to 24 years ( M = 15.6) who participated in the 2024 Communities That Care Youth Survey in Lower Saxony, Germany. Structural equation models were used to test the unique contribution of these four processes to extreme political attitudes and the affinity for political violence, and multi-group analyses assessed whether predictive pathways varied by gender, age and migration background. All four processes significantly predicted both extremism indicators, with political/religious ideology emerging as the most substantial predictor across models. Multi-group analyses revealed systematic differences across demographic groups, indicating that developmental stage and social background meaningfully shape how radicalisation-related processes unfold. Overall, the findings provide robust empirical support for the social-developmental radicalisation model and underscore the importance of developmentally sensitive, tailored, and group-specific approaches to preventing extremism among young people.