Quantifying and mapping the responses of selected ecosystem services to projected land use changes

Land use connects social and economic activities with ecological processes and influences ecosystem services. Research into the variation of substance quantity or value quantity in ecosystem services undergoing land use change has recently gained considerable attention. However, few efforts have quantified and mapped the responses of ecosystem services to projected land use change. In view of this, we propose an index that can quantitatively evaluate the degree of variation in ecosystem services caused by land use change. Based on this index, we evaluate the degrees of influence of four different scenarios of land use change (a reference scenario, rapid urbanization scenario, ecological security scenario, and cultivated land protection scenario) on ecosystem services in China’s karst mountains. The results indicate that from 2010 −2030, land use change under the ecological security and rapid urbanization scenarios significantly affects ecosystem services, with indices of 2.04 and −6.99, respectively. These indices mean that a 1% change in land use will cause the ecosystem services index to vary by 2.04% and −6.99% under the ecological security and rapid urbanization scenarios, respectively. Thus, we infer that under the ecological security scenario, land use change positively affects ecosystem services, while under the rapid urbanization scenario, ecosystem services are negatively affected by land use change. Land use changes under the ecological security scenario are thus conducive to the sustainable development of ecosystem services in the karst mountains.