N. Davies, J. Pemberton, J. D. Petruccelli, An Automatic Procedure for Identification, Estimation and Forecasting Univariate Self Exiting Threshold Autoregressive Models, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series D (The Statistician), Vol. 37, No. 2, Special Issue: Statistical Forecasting and Decision-Making (1988), pp. 199-204
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Davies et al. (1988) studied this question.
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