Evaluating Alternatives Involving Potential Fatalities

A critical aspect of many major decisions involves the possible loss of human life. Thus, in evaluating the alternatives, it is desirable to address this issue. This paper proposes a cardinal utility model for evaluating the potential fatalities and the uncertainty of their occurrence. It separates the overall consequences of fatalities into a personal direct impact and a societal indirect impact. Separate preference models are built for each impact and integrated to provide an overall evaluation of the potential fatalities. An assessment procedure is discussed and illustrated.