Climate-driven distribution dynamics of the teak defoliator Hyblaea puera under current and future climate scenarios

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Hyblaea puera Cramer (Lepidoptera: Hyblaeidae), the teak defoliator, is the most destructive insect pest of Tectona grandis plantations worldwide. However, its climatic niche and potential response to future climate change remain poorly understood. This study assessed the current and future global distribution of H. puera under different climate scenarios. A global species distribution model was developed using MaxEnt based on 451 georeferenced occurrence records. Following multicollinearity screening and principal component analysis, five bioclimatic variables were selected as predictors. Habitat suitability was projected under four CMIP6 Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) for three future periods (2041–2060, 2061–2080, and 2081–2100). The model showed high predictive performance (AUC = 0.916 ± 0.020; TSS = 0.832), with Temperature Seasonality identified as the dominant climatic driver. Under current climatic conditions, suitable habitat covered 13.35 million km², primarily across the Indian subcontinent, the Indochinese Peninsula, and southern China. Future projections indicated substantial habitat reorganization, with suitability intensifying within existing core regions. Under SSP5-8.5 during 2081–2100, high-suitability habitat increased by 105.65%, accompanied by a net expansion of 823,119 km². Ecological niche overlap metrics (Schoener’s D = 0.05–0.12; Warren’s I = 0.12–0.25) suggested considerable niche reorganization. Hence, climate change is likely to promote habitat expansion and redistribution of H. puera , particularly under high-emission scenarios. These findings provide a spatial framework for anticipating future pest risks and supporting climate-resilient management of teak plantations.