Geographic mismatch between venomous snake and treatment center distributions in Brazil: a warning in the face of climate change

Climate change is significantly altering species distributions worldwide, expanding the range of some and reducing suitable habitats for others. Concerning snakes, these changes have direct public health implications, as venomous snake species may invade new areas, including densely populated urban zones. This increases the need for appropriate antivenom distribution strategies, particularly in remote areas or those displaying limited healthcare infrastructure. While several studies have focused on climate change snake habitat effects, few have addressed how this affects snakebite treatment center logistics and organization. In this context, we aimed to assess if snake distribution changes driven by climate change require the restructuring of antivenom treatment center networks (ATCN) in Brazil. To this end, we applied occurrence records from herpetological collections alongside bioclimatic and land use variables to species distribution models employing five different algorithms considering projected 2061–2080 climate change scenarios under mitigated (SSP 2−4.5) and unchecked (SSP 5–8.5) conditions. The developed models indicate suitable snake area decreases, as well as species richness, particularly under the SSP 5–8.5 scenario. We identified a spatial mismatch, with suitable snake areas displaying up to 63% ATCN coverage deficit, particularly in extremely remote regions, especially for the Bothrops and Micrurus genera. In contrast, ATCNs carrying antivenom, particularly for the Lachesis and Crotalus genera, were noted in up to 92% of unsuitable snake areas. These findings highlight the need for constant ATCN location reassessments considering future climate change scenarios to ensure more effective snakebite incident responses, also emphasizing the importance of adopting an integrated health approach considering human, animal, and environmental health interactions to improve snakebite risk management in Brazil.