Cost-efficient decarbonization of local energy systems by whole-system based design optimization

On the way toward Net Zero 2050, the UK government set the 2035 target by slashing 78 % emissions compared to the 1990-level. To help understand how an electrified local energy system could contribute to this target and the associated cost, we develop a whole-system based local energy optimization (LEO) model. The model captures a series of state-of-the-art technologies including building fabric retrofit, battery storage, electro-mobility, electro-heating, demand response, distributed renewable, and Peer-to-Peer (P2P) energy trading. And the model enables trade-off assessment between cost and emissions minimization, compares two system operating modes, i.e., cost-oriented and grid-impact-oriented, and evaluates the impacts from weather risks and capital cost assumptions. A case study in Wales reveals (1) capital cost assumptions can lead up to 30.8 % overall cost difference of the local energy system; (2) operating the system in cost-oriented mode can save up to 5 % cost than in the grid-impact-oriented mode; (3) electro-heating by heat pumps has the highest priority among all investigated technologies. Overall, this study demonstrates how to design and operate a cost-efficient and electrified UK local energy system by the whole-system incorporation of near-term technical and business model advances towards a decarbonized future.