Penetration and impact of advanced car technologies

This research investigates the penetration of Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) and Information and Communication Technologies (ICT), and assesses their potential impact on travel behavior in the years 2030 and 2050. It is achieved using the expert–based Delphi survey answered by Israeli and international experts. Results show that by 2030, about 40% of all vehicles will be connected to vehicle–infrastructure communication systems, and by 2050, all vehicles will be autonomous and will be automatically managed and administrated by a command and control center. Acceptable future scenarios are presented, proving the feasibility of the research to achieve widespread agreement and to reach a consensus out of uncertainty or a lack of empirical evidence. The Delphi method was found to be effective for this type of research due to high level of responsiveness among the experts, convergence of the results after two rounds, easy data collection and fast processing, efficiency, and at relatively low cost.