Integrating sacred natural sites into the OECM framework: Historical land-use transitions and 2050 vulnerability projections in Rajasthan, India

As global biodiversity loss accelerates, Other Effective Area-based Conservation Measures (OECMs) have emerged as important complements to traditional protected areas. Sacred Natural Sites (SNS), known as Orans in Rajasthan, India, represent critical community-governed landscapes with significant conservation potential. However, empirical research on their land-use dynamics has been limited to forest-centric metrics and localized scales, leaving a significant gap in understanding broader land-use changes and future risks. This study aims to address these gaps by integrating a state-wide inventory of 118 SNS with 30-meter-resolution land-use data (1990–2020) and predictive modeling to categorize historical transitions and assess future vulnerabilities. Using hierarchical clustering, we identified five land-use transition typologies: Urbanization, Rapid Urbanization, Agricultural Expansion, Forest Expansion, and Stable. One of the key findings revealed that urbanization within SNS is strongly associated with cropland conversion rather than forest loss, challenging conventional land-use paradigms. Geographically, the arid western regions showed agricultural intensification associated with increased moisture availability from canal infrastructure, whereas the humid southern districts exhibited localized urbanization alongside forest expansion. The predictive modeling uncovered a "projected vulnerability shift": numerous sites that remained "Stable" over the past 30 years now exhibit high susceptibility to future land-use change. These findings underscore the limitations of uniform conservation strategies and support a tiered, site-specific policy framework. Formal recognition of SNS as OECMs and addressing the legal ambiguity surrounding SNS are essential to strengthen traditional community stewardship and safeguard the socioecological integrity of these sites amid intensifying anthropogenic pressures.