British Hegemony and Major Power War, 1815-1939: An Empirical Test of Gilpin's Model of Hegemonic Governance

Robert Gilpin's model of “hegemonic governance” represents one of the few attempts to establish explicit theoretical links between hegemony and international politico-military conflict. Specifically, Gilpin's analysis suggests that the frequency of international conflict is inversely related to the relative power of a hegemon. I empirically test this hypothesis by analyzing the pattern of international conflict during Britain's cycle of hegemony. The analysis yields conflicting evidence. The results indicate that hegemonic power has exerted a consistent negative effect on the outbreak of war since 1815. The findings also reveal a number of anomalies, however, which directly challenge the core assumptions and propositions associated with Gilpin's perspective on the relationship between hegemony and international politico-military outcomes.