Japanese colonial settlement and long-run rural income in Northeast China: evidence from the “Kaitakudan”

This study examines whether Japanese colonial settlement in Manchuria has affected contemporary rural income. We construct a novel dataset covering 290 districts across Northeast China, and employ an instrumental variable strategy, based on the 1934 Japanese population share, to identify the effect as cleanly as the historical setting allows. Our district-level analysis reveals a robust negative association between colonial settlement and present-day rural income, which is consistent with the long-run persistence of colonial institutions on rural development beyond the European colonial context.